← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 56% | 51% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.07 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 20% | 27% | 4.84 | value: +29% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Girona −0.75 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Real Betis Balompié −0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 55% | 1.69 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 45% | 2.28 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Isco · Real Betis Balompié |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Artem Dovbyk · Girona |
| 41' | 🟨 | Iván Martín · Girona |
| 45' | ⚽ | Willian José · Real Betis Balompié |
| 45' | 🟨 | Chadi Riad · Real Betis Balompié |
| 65' | ⚽ | Artem Dovbyk · Girona |
| 76' | ⚽ | Willian José · Real Betis Balompié |
| 83' | 🟨 | Chimy Ávila · Real Betis Balompié |
| 88' | 🟨 | Pablo Torre · Girona |
| 90' | ⚽ | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadi Municipal de Montilivi |
| 🟨 |
| Yangel Herrera · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pablo Fornals · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1004.00 | 1338.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1805.26 | 1723.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.72 | -19.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| league points | 62.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 14.86 | 13.86 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.31 | 0.41 |
| solidity v1 | 0.90 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.21 | 28.13 |
| state index | 0.88 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.16 | 1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.38 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 0.89 |