← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Sep 24, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luis Pulido Santana, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 56% | 64% | 1.71 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.43 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 15% | 13% | 6.71 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF −0.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol −0.75 | 50% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 68% | 52% | 1.44 | fair |
| Over | 32% | 48% | 3.00 | value: +43% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Takefusa Kubo · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 19' | 🟨 | Diego Rico · Getafe CF |
| 39' | ⚽ | Carles Aleñá · Getafe CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Álex Remiro · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 45' | 🟨 | Aihen Muñoz · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 45' | 🟨 | Brais Méndez · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Borja Mayoral · Getafe CF |
| 49' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 61' | ⚽ (pen) | Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 66' | ⚽ | Brais Méndez · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 24 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Reale Arena |
| 88' | ⚽ | Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 90' | ⚽ | Juanmi Latasa · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 5.40 |
| coach days | 1758.00 | 176.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1807.64 | 1660.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.63 | 5.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| league points | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 35.20 |
| rest days | 6.71 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | — |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.36 | -1.52 |
| solidity v1 | -0.06 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.17 | 28.09 |
| state index | 0.76 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 0.88 |