← Primera Division 2022-23 · Thu, Apr 27, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: César Soto
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 62% | 63% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.52 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 16% | 18% | 6.16 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Villarreal CF −1 | 51% | 1.91 |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona −1 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 56% | 52% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 48% | 2.22 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 31 | Shots | 13 |
| 13 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |