← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sat, Mar 5, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Valentín Pizarro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 52% | 55% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.77 | fair |
| Granada win | 21% | 21% | 4.84 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF −0.5 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Granada −0.5 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 51% | 1.86 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 49% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Eray Cömert · Valencia CF |
| 34' | 🟨 | Yunus Musah · Valencia CF |
| 48' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Guedes · Valencia CF |
| 51' | ⚽ | Maximiliano Gómez · Valencia CF |
| 56' | ⚽ (og) | Hugo Guillamón · Granada |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Carlos Soler · Valencia CF |
| 63' | 🟨 | Víctor Díaz · Granada |
| 69' | 🟨 | Marcos André · Valencia CF |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ruben Rochina · Granada |
| 87' | 🟨 | Quini · Granada |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio de Mestalla |
| coach days | 247.00 | 277.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1632.93 | 1556.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.54 | -43.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.10 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.75 |
| league points | 33.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 7.19 | 4.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.62 | -1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 24.52 | 24.15 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.98 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |