← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sat, Feb 26, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Figueroa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mallorca win | 41% | 37% | 2.38 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 36% | 3.25 | value: +16% |
| Valencia CF win | 29% | 27% | 3.53 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Mallorca −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 61% | 1.77 | value: +7% |
| Over | 44% | 39% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Gabriel Paulista · Valencia CF |
| 16' | 🟨 | Takefusa Kubo · Mallorca |
| 19' | 🟨 | Bryan Gil · Valencia CF |
| 23' | 🟨 | Omar Alderete · Valencia CF |
| 26' | 🟨 | Mouctar Diakhaby · Valencia CF |
| 42' | 🟨 | Giorgi Mamardashvili · Valencia CF |
| 71' | 🟨 | Martin Valjent · Mallorca |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jaume Costa · Mallorca |
| 88' | 🟨 | Ilaix Moriba · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 14 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mallorca | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| venue | Visit Mallorca Estadi |
| 🟨 |
| Ilaix Moriba · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟥 | Ilaix Moriba · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 574.00 | 240.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1595.62 | 1683.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.66 | -24.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 47.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.66 |
| league points | 26.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 5.81 | 5.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | -1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.51 | 24.06 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |