← Primera Division 2021-22 · Mon, Dec 20, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo González
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 40% | 34% | 2.45 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 32% | 37% | 3.13 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.42 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Levante UD +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Valencia CF +0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 54% | 1.94 | value: +4% |
| Over | 50% | 46% | 1.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Uroš Račić · Valencia CF |
| -5' | 🟥 | Uroš Račić · Valencia CF |
| 20' | 🟨 | Mouctar Diakhaby · Valencia CF |
| 21' | ⚽ | José Campaña · Levante UD |
| 23' | 🟨 | Pepelu · Levante UD |
| 24' | ⚽ | Roger Martí · Levante UD |
| 44' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Guedes · Valencia CF |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Carlos Soler · Valencia CF |
| 58' | 🟨 | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
| 60' | 🟨 | Uroš Račić · Valencia CF |
| 72' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 9 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 21 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| venue | Estadio Ciudad de Valencia |
| ⚽ |
| Carlos Soler · Valencia CF |
| 80' | 🟨 | Rubén Iranzo · Valencia CF |
| 85' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Guedes · Valencia CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Hélder Costa · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Roberto Soldado · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | Roberto Soldado · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟥 | Roberto Soldado · Levante UD |
| 90' | ⚽ | Enis Bardhi · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 49.00 | 172.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1567.41 | 1719.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.23 | 21.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.66 |
| league points | 8.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 9.29 | 9.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.47 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | -1.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.06 | 26.66 |
| state index | -0.95 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | -1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |