← Primera Division 2021-22 · Wed, Oct 27, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Díaz de Mera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 52% | 60% | 1.93 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.75 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 22% | 19% | 4.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Valencia CF −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 54% | 1.82 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 46% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Omar Alderete · Valencia CF |
| 14' | ⚽ (pen) | Borja Iglesias · Real Betis Balompié |
| 30' | ⚽ | Borja Iglesias · Real Betis Balompié |
| 37' | 🟨 | William Carvalho · Real Betis Balompié |
| 39' | ⚽ | Gabriel Paulista · Valencia CF |
| 49' | 🟨 | Hugo Guillamón · Valencia CF |
| 54' | 🟨 | Guido Rodríguez · Real Betis Balompié |
| 61' | ⚽ | Germán Pezzella · Real Betis Balompié |
| 68' | ⚽ | Juanmi · Real Betis Balompié |
| 70' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Guedes · Valencia CF |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Estadio Benito Villamarín |
| 73' | 🟨 | Dimitri Foulquier · Valencia CF |
| 77' | 🟨 | Manu Vallejo · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4.00 |
| coach days | 452.00 | 118.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1762.16 | 1691.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.12 | -19.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.80 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 3.06 | 4.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.81 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.77 | 27.29 |
| state index | 0.91 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |