← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sun, Sep 12, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 42% | 43% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.13 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 27% | 27% | 3.76 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Valencia CF −0.25 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 62% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 38% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Jon Moncayola · CA Osasuna |
| 26' | ⚽ | Maximiliano Gómez · Valencia CF |
| 28' | 🟨 | Carlos Soler · Valencia CF |
| 33' | 🟨 | Lucas Torró · CA Osasuna |
| 50' | ⚽ (og) | Aridane Hernández · Valencia CF |
| 55' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Guedes · Valencia CF |
| 57' | 🟨 | David García · CA Osasuna |
| 73' | ⚽ | Omar Alderete · Valencia CF |
| 75' | 🟨 | Sergio Herrera · CA Osasuna |
| 81' | 🟨 | Omar Alderete · Valencia CF |
| 89' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| 🟨 |
| Jon Moncayola · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1199.00 | 73.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.48 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1611.47 | 1631.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.19 | 28.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 67.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | — |
| league points | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 13.86 | 15.75 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.61 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.08 | 25.18 |
| state index | 0.28 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |