← Primera Division 2019-20 · Thu, Jul 16, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mallorca win | 40% | 55% | 2.42 | value: +32% |
| Granada win | 32% | 21% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.53 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Granada −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Mallorca −0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 51% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 49% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Ante Budimir · Mallorca |
| 20' | ⚽ | Cucho Hernández · Mallorca |
| 21' | 🟨 | Yangel Herrera · Granada |
| 28' | 🟨 | Salva Sevilla · Mallorca |
| 33' | 🟨 | Iddrisu Baba · Mallorca |
| 44' | 🟨 | Ángel Montoro · Granada |
| 45' | ⚽ | Víctor Díaz · Granada |
| 61' | 🟨 | Martin Valjent · Mallorca |
| 67' | 🟨 | Takefusa Kubo · Mallorca |
| 69' | ⚽ | Carlos Fernández · Granada |
| 80' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mallorca | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Iberostar Estadi |
| 🟥 |
| Aleksandar Sedlar · Mallorca |
| 84' | 🟨 | Cucho Hernández · Mallorca |
| 86' | 🟨 | Darwin Machís · Granada |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antonio Puertas · Granada |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rui Silva · Granada |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cucho Hernández · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟥 | Cucho Hernández · Mallorca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1202.00 | 776.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1572.25 | 1666.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.53 | 13.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| league points | 32.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 3.96 | 2.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | -1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.49 | 26.76 |
| state index | 0.11 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |