← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 69% | 46% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 30% | 5.13 | value: +54% |
| Valladolid win | 12% | 24% | 8.01 | value: +89% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
| 11' | 🟨 | José Luis Gayà · Valencia CF |
| 21' | 🟨 | Mouctar Diakhaby · Valencia CF |
| 26' | 🟨 | Borja · Valladolid |
| 36' | ⚽ | Carlos Soler · Valencia CF |
| 41' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Guedes · Valencia CF |
| 52' | ⚽ | Rodrigo · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | José Zorrilla |
| coach days |
| 412.00 |
| 32.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.31 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1535.60 | 1714.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.07 | -25.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.48 | 0.77 |
| league points | 41.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.17 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.63 |
| state index | 0.41 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.87 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |