← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 75% | 72% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 15% | 5.64 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 8% | 13% | 12.31 | value: +62% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Ximo Navarro · Deportivo Alavés |
| 17' | 🟨 | Darko Brašanac · Deportivo Alavés |
| 29' | ⚽ | Carlos Soler · Valencia CF |
| 34' | ⚽ | Santi Mina · Valencia CF |
| 35' | 🟨 | Tomás Pina · Deportivo Alavés |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ezequiel Garay · Valencia CF |
| 64' | 🟨 | Gabriel Paulista · Valencia CF |
| 68' | ⚽ | Kévin Gameiro · Valencia CF |
| 72' | 🟨 | Borja Bastón · Deportivo Alavés |
| 89' | 🟨 | Víctor Laguardia · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Patrick Twumasi · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Mestalla |
| coach days |
| 26.00 |
| 11.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 3.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1707.67 | 1568.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.70 | -25.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.80 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| league points | 55.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | -1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.89 | — |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |