← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 56% | 63% | 1.72 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.01 | fair |
| Huesca win | 19% | 14% | 5.04 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Mario Gaspar · Villarreal CF |
| 30' | ⚽ | Pablo Fornals · Villarreal CF |
| 40' | 🟨 | Pablo Fornals · Villarreal CF |
| 53' | 🟨 | Javi Galán · Huesca |
| 56' | 🟨 | Karl Toko Ekambi · Villarreal CF |
| 75' | 🟨 | Santiago Cáseres · Villarreal CF |
| 78' | ⚽ | Chimy Ávila · Huesca |
| 86' | 🟨 | Yangel Herrera · Huesca |
| 90' | 🟨 | — · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟥 | Jorge Pulido · Huesca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 0 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 22 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Huesca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days | 117.00 | 209.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1644.06 | 1537.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.63 | 25.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| league points | 39.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 65.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | -1.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.74 | — |
| state index | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | -1.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |