← Primera Division 2018-19 · Fri, Feb 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huesca win | 44% | 45% | 2.22 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.27 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 26% | 27% | 3.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Enric Gallego · Huesca |
| 37' | 🟨 | Cucho Hernández · Huesca |
| 50' | ⚽ | Jorge Pulido · Huesca |
| 53' | ⚽ | Moi Gómez · Huesca |
| 63' | 🟨 | Pablo Insua · Huesca |
| 69' | 🟨 | Javi Galán · Huesca |
| 77' | ⚽ | Chimy Ávila · Huesca |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jorge Pulido · Huesca |
| 83' | 🟨 | Damian Musto · Huesca |
| 85' | 🟨 | Moi Gómez · Huesca |
| 85' | 🟨 | Anuar · Valladolid |
| 88' | 🟨 | Fernando Calero · Valladolid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huesca | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | El Alcoraz |
| coach days | 123.00 | 306.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.46 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1489.40 | 1556.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.55 | -12.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.72 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| league points | 12.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |