← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 66% | 64% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.41 | fair |
| Girona win | 12% | 16% | 7.81 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | José Luis Gayà · Valencia CF |
| 30' | 🟨 | Seydou Doumbia · Girona |
| 36' | 🟨 | Francis Coquelin · Valencia CF |
| 39' | 🟨 | Marc Muniesa · Girona |
| 40' | 🟨 | Carles Planas · Girona |
| 48' | ⚽ | Pere Pons · Girona |
| 59' | 🟨 | Bono · Girona |
| 77' | 🟨 | Gabriel Paulista · Valencia CF |
| 79' | 🟨 | Geoffrey Kondogbia · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 5 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Mestalla |
| coach days | 490.00 | 155.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 1.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1652.86 | 1550.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.03 | -10.94 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.30 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.76 |
| league points | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.70 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | -0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.63 | 25.99 |
| state index | 0.38 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |