← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 74% | 78% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 16% | 5.95 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 9% | 6% | 10.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Gerard Piqué · FC Barcelona |
| 12' | 🟨 | Geoffrey Kondogbia · Valencia CF |
| 15' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 51' | ⚽ | Samuel Umtiti · FC Barcelona |
| 75' | 🟨 | Gabriel Paulista · Valencia CF |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ousmane Dembélé · FC Barcelona |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days |
| 317.00 |
| 287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1945.18 | 1685.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.07 | 43.62 |
| eye test v1 | 1.60 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| league points | 79.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 2.55 | 2.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.05 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.40 | 25.65 |
| state index | 1.78 | 1.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.07 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |