strategy & model leaderboard

← lab · 5 backtests ranked by skill vs the market · ran 7/3/2026

What this is: Ranks every backtested model by skill against the bookmaker's closing prices — the fairest single scoreboard we have.

Ranked by skill first (Brier edge vs the de-vigged market — positive means sharper than the bookmaker), then CLV, then ROI. Note: entries differ in markets/periods; same-competition rows are the fair comparisons. Armed strategies await their forward paper trials.

Backtest	Model	Comp	Bets	ROI	CLV	Brier edge
#1	poisson_tw	EPL	353	-5.8%	-1.05%	-0.00526
#2	poisson_tw	EPL	2,322	-7.0%	-0.25%	-0.00617
#6	ml_gbm_v1	EL2	9,818	-5.5%	-0.04%	-0.01067
#4	ml_gbm_v1	EPL	10,506	-2.1%	0.07%	-0.02901
#3	ml_gbm_v1	EPL	10,616	-3.0%	0.06%	-0.03131

Registered strategies

Code	Status	Description
draw_family_v1	armed	The sweep survivor: back the DRAW when model edge > 10% in high-tempo matchups. Verdict window +12.6% on 324 unseen bets (upper bound).
draw_calm_books_v1	armed	Sibling survivor: back the DRAW when edge > 15% and bookmaker margin is low. Verdict +4.5% on 429 unseen bets.
mlb_dog_variance_v1	live	Baseball is the highest-variance major sport (rating->win only +0.12) yet the public loves favorites. Back MLB underdogs priced 2.2-3.5 when our Elo edge is at worst -3%.
elo_value_mlb_v1	live	Straight Elo value on MLB moneylines: bet either side when Elo win probability beats the best price by 4%.
drought_fade_v1	live	Law-derived (winless-run replicates in 4 sports): bet AGAINST any side whose opponent... no — whose own winless run is 4+ games, when priced under 2.8. Fade the drought.
steam_confusion_v1	live	Market-structure play: when bookmakers DISAGREE hard on a price (cross-book spread > 8%), take the best available price on the side with any positive Elo edge — someone is wrong, take the generous one.
fatigue_fade_nba_v1	armed	Law-derived (NBA congestion is real, r=-0.067): fade NBA teams playing their 4th+ game in 7 days against fresher opponents.
hot_hand_fade_v1	live	Mean-reversion creative: fade sides whose Elo momentum is scorching (opponent momentum in top band) — the market overprices streaks. Expected to be humbled; that is the point of testing it.
chaos_parlay_v1	live	The fun one: a $2 three-leg parlay of the day's highest-edge independent legs across all live strategies' candidates. Margin math says it should bleed; it exists to make the math visible.
placebo_rain_unders_v1	armed	CONTROL: bet football unders when heavy rain is forecast. Our own discovery says rain does NOT reduce goals — so this placebo SHOULD lose at the margin rate. If it wins long-term, our discovery engine has a bug. Science.
cards_closeness_v1	dormant	Discovery-derived (closeness->fouls, r=+0.19 emergent): cards/fouls overs in evenly-matched games. Dormant until a live cards-odds feed exists.
value_all_v1	retired	Baseline engine: any market, 5% edge, fractional Kelly. Backtest verdict: -2.05% over 20 EPL seasons. Kept as the reference corpse.

Reading the columnswhat each number actually means

ROI	profit per unit staked at opening prices
CLV	how much better our price was than the closing price — the earliest sign of real skill
Brier edge	probability accuracy vs the de-vigged closing market; positive = sharper than the bookmaker

Spec · the reproducible recipe

{
  "kind": "leaderboard"
}