← FIFA World Cup 2026 · last 32 · Tue, Jun 30, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesús Valenzuela, Venezuela
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Norway win | 45% | 20% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.55 | fair |
| Ivory Coast win | 27% | 55% | 3.65 | value: +102% ⚠ |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 50% | 38% | 1.97 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 62% | 1.95 | value: +22% |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 55% | 62% | 1.74 | value: +8% |
| No | 45% | 38% | 2.20 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under 9.5 | 52% | 1.81 |
| Over 9.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
How many cards?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 4 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | REGULAR |
| qualified | away |
| stage | LAST_32 |
| venue | AT&T Stadium |