The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Model says
Best price
Verdict
United States win
70%
64%
1.42
fair
Draw
19%
20%
5.35
value: +8%
Bosnia and Herzegovina win
11%
16%
9.50
value: +54%
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Model says
Best price
Verdict
Over
57%
74%
1.75
value: +30% ⚠
Under
43%
26%
2.27
fair
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Model says
Best price
Verdict
No
51%
31%
1.91
fair
Yes
49%
69%
1.98
value: +36% ⚠
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 9.5
51%
1.88
Under 9.5
49%
1.95
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 2.5
51%
1.88
Under 2.5
49%
2.00
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Bosnia and Herzegovina win
8.70
9.10
+4.6%
Draw
5.00
5.28
+5.5%
United States win
1.36
1.35
-0.4%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.