← FIFA World Cup 2026 · last 32 · Thu, Jul 2, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Glenn Nyberg, Sweden
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Spain win | 74% | 59% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 26% | 5.96 | value: +53% |
| Austria win | 8% | 15% | 13.00 | value: +96% |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 57% | 54% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 46% | 2.29 | value: +6% |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| No | 56% | 47% | 1.73 | fair |
| Yes | 44% | 53% | 2.20 | value: +17% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 9 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under 9 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
How many cards?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under 3.5 | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 4 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | REGULAR |
| qualified | home |
| stage | LAST_32 |
| venue | SoFi Stadium |