← FIFA World Cup 2026 · last 32 · Sun, Jun 28, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Canada win | 52% | 34% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.50 | value: +13% |
| South Africa win | 19% | 34% | 5.30 | value: +78% |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 4 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | REGULAR |
| qualified | away |
| stage | LAST_32 |
| venue | SoFi Stadium |