← FIFA World Cup 2026 · last 32 · Tue, Jun 30, 09:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Makkelie, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| France win | 75% | 69% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 19% | 6.52 | value: +24% |
| Sweden win | 9% | 12% | 13.00 | value: +55% |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 67% | 71% | 1.60 | value: +14% |
| Under | 33% | 29% | 3.05 | fair |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 54% | 62% | 1.75 | value: +9% |
| No | 46% | 38% | 2.15 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 9.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under 9.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
How many cards?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.25 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 4 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | REGULAR |
| qualified | home |
| stage | LAST_32 |
| venue | MetLife Stadium |