← FIFA World Cup 2026 · group stage · Sat, Jun 27, 09:00 PM UTC · ref: Drew Fischer, Canada
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia win | 53% | 45% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.35 | value: +7% |
| Ghana win | 17% | 23% | 6.20 | value: +42% |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Petar Sucic · Croatia |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ivan Perisic · Croatia |
| 73' | ⚽ | Derrick Luckassen · Ghana |
| 83' | ⚽ | Nikola Vlasic · Croatia |
| 90'+4' | 🟨 | Kojo Peprah Oppong · Ghana |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Croatia | Ghana |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3191.00 | 87.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d |
| duration | REGULAR |
| group | GROUP_L |
| stage | GROUP_STAGE |
| venue | Lincoln Financial Field |
| 6.00 |
| 5.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | — |
| elo | 1846.12 | 1652.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.91 | 34.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | -1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 62.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 37.00 |
| rest days | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | -0.87 |
| solidity v1 | -0.74 | 0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 30.03 | 27.83 |
| state index | 0.85 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.89 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 0.74 |