← FIFA World Cup 2026 · group stage · Sat, Jun 27, 09:00 PM UTC · ref: Abdulrahman Al-Jassim, Qatar
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England win | 84% | 29% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 33% | 9.50 | value: +217% ⚠ |
| Panama win | 5% | 37% | 23.00 | value: +758% ⚠ |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | 🟨 | José Fajardo · Panama |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jarell Quansah · England |
| 62' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham · England |
| 67' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · England |
| 84' | 🟨 | Andrés Andrade · Panama |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Panama | England |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2187.00 | 542.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| duration | REGULAR |
| group | GROUP_L |
| stage | GROUP_STAGE |
| venue | MetLife Stadium |
| 5.00 |
| 6.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 3.84 |
| elo | 1692.18 | 1947.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.45 | 8.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | 1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.57 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 87.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 63.20 |
| rest days | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | 1.24 |
| solidity v1 | 0.19 | 1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 29.22 | 26.90 |
| state index | -0.62 | 1.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 0.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.68 | 1.39 |