← FIFA World Cup 2026 · group stage · Wed, Jun 17, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Clement Turpin, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England win | 58% | 57% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 4.00 | value: +7% |
| Croatia win | 18% | 16% | 5.90 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ (pen) | Harry Kane · England |
| 36' | ⚽ | Martin Baturina · Croatia |
| 42' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · England |
| 45'+5' | ⚽ | Petar Musa · Croatia |
| 47' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham · England |
| 85' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · England |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | England | Croatia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 532.00 | 3181.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| duration | REGULAR |
| group | GROUP_L |
| stage | GROUP_STAGE |
| venue | AT&T Stadium |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.72 | 1.84 |
| elo | 1947.35 | 1833.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.85 | -16.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | 0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| skill v1 | 0.82 | 1.42 |
| solidity v1 | 0.76 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.17 | 28.59 |
| state index | 1.36 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.02 | 0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.46 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 2.19 |