← FIFA World Cup 2026 · group stage · Sun, Jun 28, 02:00 AM UTC · ref: I. Tantashev
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 46% | 30% | 2.15 | fair |
| Algeria win | 28% | 44% | 3.70 | value: +63% ⚠ |
| Austria win | 27% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Marko Arnautovic · Austria |
| 28' | ⚽ | Marko Arnautovic · Austria |
| 45' | ⚽ | Rafik Belghali · Algeria |
| 55' | ⚽ | Marcel Sabitzer · Austria |
| 60' | ⚽ | Riyad Mahrez · Algeria |
| 90'+3' | ⚽ | Riyad Mahrez · Algeria |
| 90'+6' | ⚽ | Sasa Kalajdzic · Austria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Algeria | Austria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 878.00 | 1519.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 3.40 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| group | GROUP_J |
| stage | GROUP_STAGE |
| venue | Arrowhead Stadium |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 4.40 |
| elo | 1845.05 | 1810.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.23 | 9.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | — | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 54.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 1.60 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.64 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.00 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| skill v1 | 1.13 | 0.72 |
| solidity v1 | -0.12 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.55 | 28.72 |
| state index | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.62 | 0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.69 |