← FIFA World Cup 2026 · group stage · Sun, Jun 28, 02:00 AM UTC · ref: I. Kovacs
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina win | 85% | 48% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 29% | 9.80 | value: +182% ⚠ |
| Jordan win | 5% | 23% | 25.00 | value: +475% ⚠ |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Mohannad Abu Taha · Jordan |
| 19' | ⚽ | Giovani Lo Celso · Argentina |
| 31' | ⚽ (pen) | Lautaro Martínez · Argentina |
| 55' | ⚽ | Mousa Al-Tamari · Jordan |
| 64' | 🟨 | Yazan Al-Arab · Jordan |
| 80' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · Argentina |
| 90'+4' | 🟨 | Mohammed Abu Zraiq · Jordan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Jordan | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.53 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 757.00 | 2888.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| duration | REGULAR |
| group | GROUP_J |
| stage | GROUP_STAGE |
| venue | AT&T Stadium |
| 6.00 |
| 6.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 3.40 |
| elo | 1654.43 | 2065.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.47 | 25.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | 1.21 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 76.00 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | — |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| scorer concentration | — | 1.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.04 | 0.80 |
| solidity v1 | -1.43 | 2.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.67 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 29.53 | 29.83 |
| state index | -1.00 | 2.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 0.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.92 |