β FIFA World Cup 2026 Β· group stage Β· Tue, Jun 23, 03:00 AM UTC Β· ref: Slavko VinΔiΔ, Slovenia
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Algeria win | 65% | 60% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.70 | value: +7% |
| Jordan win | 13% | 17% | 7.60 | value: +30% |
across 4 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 4 more recorded facts β tap to expand
| duration | REGULAR |
| group | GROUP_J |
| stage | GROUP_STAGE |
| venue | Levi's Stadium |