← FIFA World Cup 2026 · group stage · Sat, Jun 27, 03:00 AM UTC · ref: Szymon Marciniak, Poland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt win | 37% | 63% | 2.70 | value: +70% ⚠ |
| Draw | 36% | 24% | 2.82 | fair |
| Iran win | 28% | 13% | 3.66 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Mahmoud Saber · Egypt |
| 14' | ⚽ | Ramin Rezaeian · Iran |
| 19' | 🟨 | Hossein Kanani · Iran |
| 20' | 🟨 | Mahmoud Saber · Egypt |
| 42' | 🟨 | Yasser Ibrahim · Egypt |
| 43' | 🟨 | Ali Nemati · Iran |
| 79' | 🟨 | Saeid Ezatolahi · Iran |
| 90'+2' | 🟨 | Mohanad Lashin · Egypt |
| 90'+4' | 🟨 | Shoja Khalilzadeh · Iran |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Egypt | Iran |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 26.00 | 1214.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| duration | REGULAR |
| group | GROUP_G |
| stage | GROUP_STAGE |
| venue | Lumen Field |
| 5.80 |
| 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| elo | 1781.63 | 1830.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.75 | -5.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.56 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.20 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.80 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | -0.83 |
| solidity v1 | 0.03 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.89 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 29.76 | 32.68 |
| state index | 0.96 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | -1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.06 |