← FIFA World Cup 2026 · group stage · Sat, Jun 27, 03:00 AM UTC · ref: Adham Mohammad, Jordan
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium win | 82% | 23% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 30% | 9.20 | value: +177% ⚠ |
| New Zealand win | 7% | 47% | 15.50 | value: +625% ⚠ |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Leandro Trossard · Belgium |
| 46' | 🟨 | Marko Stamenic · New Zealand |
| 50' | ⚽ | Leandro Trossard · Belgium |
| 56' | 🟨 | Elijah Just · New Zealand |
| 66' | ⚽ | Kevin De Bruyne · Belgium |
| 84' | ⚽ | Elijah Just · New Zealand |
| 86' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · Belgium |
| 90'+4' | ⚽ | Alexis Saelemaekers · Belgium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New Zealand | Belgium |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1092.00 | 542.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| duration | REGULAR |
| group | GROUP_G |
| stage | GROUP_STAGE |
| venue | BC Place |
| 6.00 |
| 6.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.25 |
| elo | 1628.38 | 1874.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.78 | -5.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | 0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | — | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 2.54 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.82 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.50 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | 0.76 |
| solidity v1 | -1.21 | 0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.50 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.50 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.81 | 30.32 |
| state index | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 0.90 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.20 |