← FIFA World Cup 2026 · group stage · Thu, Jun 25, 11:00 PM UTC · ref: Iván Barton, El Salvador
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan win | 41% | 82% | 2.40 | value: +96% ⚠ |
| Sweden win | 30% | 6% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 12% | 3.60 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Isak Hien · Sweden |
| 56' | ⚽ | Daizen Maeda · Japan |
| 62' | ⚽ | Anthony Elanga · Sweden |
| 77' | 🟨 | Shogo Taniguchi · Japan |
| 85' | 🟨 | Viktor Gyökeres · Sweden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Japan | Sweden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2885.00 | 875.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| duration | REGULAR |
| group | GROUP_F |
| stage | GROUP_STAGE |
| venue | AT&T Stadium |
| 3.00 |
| 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| elo | 1930.88 | 1722.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.71 | 24.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 66.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | -0.79 |
| solidity v1 | 1.41 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.56 | 5.17 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.56 | 27.78 |
| state index | 1.52 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -1.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.42 | 1.44 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.17 |