← FIFA World Cup 2026 · group stage · Thu, Jun 25, 11:00 PM UTC · ref: Katia García, Mexico
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands win | 85% | 52% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 23% | 12.00 | value: +173% |
| Tunisia win | 5% | 25% | 25.00 | value: +519% ⚠ |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (og) | Ellyes Skhiri · Netherlands |
| 7' | ⚽ | Brian Brobbey · Netherlands |
| 54' | ⚽ | Hazem Mastouri · Tunisia |
| 62' | ⚽ | Jan Paul van Hecke · Netherlands |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tunisia | Netherlands |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 24.00 | 1271.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| duration | REGULAR |
| group | GROUP_F |
| stage | GROUP_STAGE |
| venue | Arrowhead Stadium |
| 6.00 |
| 6.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 3.24 |
| elo | 1670.75 | 1924.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -61.46 | 20.31 |
| eye test v1 | -1.34 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.62 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 1.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 88.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.04 | 1.08 |
| solidity v1 | -1.33 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.43 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.49 | 27.30 |
| state index | -1.39 | 1.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | 0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 0.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.17 | 1.59 |