← FIFA World Cup 2026 · group stage · Thu, Jun 25, 11:00 PM UTC · ref: Katia García, Mexico
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Netherlands win | 85% | 52% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 23% | 12.00 | value: +173% |
| Tunisia win | 5% | 25% | 25.00 | value: +519% ⚠ |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 4 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | REGULAR |
| group | GROUP_F |
| stage | GROUP_STAGE |
| venue | Arrowhead Stadium |