← FIFA World Cup 2026 · group stage · Sat, Jun 20, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands win | 56% | 75% | 1.76 | value: +31% ⚠ |
| Draw | 24% | 15% | 4.10 | fair |
| Sweden win | 20% | 11% | 5.20 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Brian Brobbey · Netherlands |
| 17' | ⚽ | Brian Brobbey · Netherlands |
| 47' | ⚽ | Cody Gakpo · Netherlands |
| 53' | 🟨 | Gabriel Gudmundsson · Sweden |
| 54' | ⚽ | Cody Gakpo · Netherlands |
| 59' | ⚽ | Anthony Elanga · Sweden |
| 75' | 🟨 | Yasin Ayari · Sweden |
| 80' | 🟨 | Lucas Bergvall · Sweden |
| 89' | ⚽ | Crysencio Summerville · Netherlands |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Netherlands | Sweden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1266.00 | 870.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| duration | REGULAR |
| group | GROUP_F |
| stage | GROUP_STAGE |
| venue | NRG Stadium |
| 3.40 |
| 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.12 | — |
| elo | 1909.29 | 1722.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.41 | 14.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 68.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | — |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 36.40 |
| rest days | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.91 | -1.51 |
| solidity v1 | 0.68 | — |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.44 | 28.02 |
| state index | 1.04 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.94 | -1.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.88 | — |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.41 | — |