← FIFA World Cup 2026 · group stage · Sun, Jun 14, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Ismail Elfath, USA
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Netherlands win | 48% | 40% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.60 | value: +8% |
| Japan win | 25% | 30% | 4.00 | value: +21% |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 4 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | REGULAR |
| group | GROUP_F |
| stage | GROUP_STAGE |
| venue | AT&T Stadium |