← FIFA World Cup 2026 · group stage · Fri, Jun 19, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States win | 61% | 33% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 29% | 4.50 | value: +29% |
| Australia win | 16% | 39% | 6.50 | value: +152% ⚠ |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ (og) | Cameron Burgess · United States |
| 16' | 🟨 | Jordan Bos · Australia |
| 32' | 🟨 | Alessandro Circati · Australia |
| 43' | ⚽ | Alex Freeman · United States |
| 56' | 🟨 | Antonee Robinson · United States |
| 88' | 🟨 | Harry Souttar · Australia |
| 89' | 🟨 | Folarin Balogun · United States |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jacob Italiano · Australia |
| 90'+3' | 🟨 | Chris Richards · United States |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | United States | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 110.00 | 656.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| duration | REGULAR |
| group | GROUP_D |
| stage | GROUP_STAGE |
| venue | Lumen Field |
| 3.60 |
| 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.09 | — |
| elo | 1820.31 | 1833.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 42.87 | -0.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | — |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 35.60 |
| rest days | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | -1.15 |
| solidity v1 | 0.47 | — |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.14 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 27.11 | 25.19 |
| state index | 1.45 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.66 | — |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | — |