← FIFA World Cup 2026 · group stage · Thu, Jun 18, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland win | 62% | 79% | 1.58 | value: +25% ⚠ |
| Draw | 23% | 14% | 4.30 | fair |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina win | 15% | 6% | 7.00 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 59' | 🟨 | Amar Dedic · Bosnia and Herzegovina |
| 61' | 🟨 | Edin Dzeko · Bosnia and Herzegovina |
| 65' | 🟨 | Nico Elvedi · Switzerland |
| 74' | ⚽ | Johan Manzambi · Switzerland |
| 80' | 🟥 | Tarik Muharemovic · Bosnia and Herzegovina |
| 84' | ⚽ | Rubén Vargas · Switzerland |
| 90' | ⚽ | Johan Manzambi · Switzerland |
| 90'+3' | ⚽ | Ermin Mahmic · Bosnia and Herzegovina |
| 90'+7' | ⚽ (pen) | Granit Xhaka · Switzerland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Switzerland | Bosnia and Herzegovina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1782.00 | 808.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| duration | REGULAR |
| group | GROUP_B |
| stage | GROUP_STAGE |
| venue | SoFi Stadium |
| 5.40 |
| — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | — |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.56 | — |
| elo | 1847.50 | 1575.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.39 | 13.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | — |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 62.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.65 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | — |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | — |
| rest days | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | — |
| solidity v1 | 1.12 | — |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | — |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | — |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | — |
| squad age | 29.89 | 26.24 |
| state index | 1.15 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | — |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | — |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | — |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.85 | — |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.53 | — |