← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, May 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 46% | 42% | 2.05 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 29% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland +0.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Chelsea +0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 47% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 53% | 2.10 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Trai Hume · Sunderland |
| 42' | 🟨 | Nilson Angulo · Sunderland |
| 50' | ⚽ (og) | Malo Gusto · Sunderland |
| 51' | 🟨 | Lutsharel Geertruida · Sunderland |
| 54' | 🟨 | Wesley Fofana · Chelsea |
| 56' | ⚽ | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 62' | 🟨 | Wesley Fofana · Chelsea |
| 62' | 🟥 | Wesley Fofana · Chelsea |
| 69' | 🟨 | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
| 73' | 🟨 | Granit Xhaka · Sunderland |
| 81' | 🟨 | Habib Diarra · Sunderland |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| 89' | 🟨 | Noah Sadiki · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Pedro · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 692.00 |
| 296.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1622.19 | 1740.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.99 | -32.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| league points | 51.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 4.82 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | 0.53 |
| solidity v1 | -0.55 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.58 | 24.27 |
| state index | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | 0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 389.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.04 |