← Premier League 2025-26 · Mon, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 67% | 62% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 4.75 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 14% | 19% | 7.00 | value: +35% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea −1.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Nott'm Forest −1.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 58% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 42% | 2.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Taiwo Awoniyi · Nott'm Forest |
| 10' | 🟨 | Morato · Nott'm Forest |
| 14' | 🟨 | Malo Gusto · Chelsea |
| 15' | ⚽ (pen) | Igor Jesus · Nott'm Forest |
| 52' | ⚽ | Taiwo Awoniyi · Nott'm Forest |
| 78' | 🟨 | Liam Delap · Chelsea |
| 78' | 🟨 | Moisés Caicedo · Chelsea |
| 90' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 276.00 | 245.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1900.37 | 1905.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -77.29 | 48.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.76 |
| league points | 48.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 12.79 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| solidity v1 | -1.04 | 1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 24.55 | 27.23 |
| state index | -0.50 | 1.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 174.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.43 |