← Premier League 2025-26 · Wed, Mar 4, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 37% | 33% | 2.55 | fair |
| Aston Villa win | 36% | 42% | 2.63 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Aston Villa +0 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 47% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 53% | 2.10 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Douglas Luiz · Aston Villa |
| 32' | 🟨 | Matty Cash · Aston Villa |
| 35' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Chelsea |
| 45' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Chelsea |
| 54' | 🟨 | João Pedro · Chelsea |
| 55' | ⚽ | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 58' | 🟨 | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 58' | 🟨 | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
| 64' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Chelsea |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| coach days |
| 1219.00 |
| 215.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 3.61 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1808.99 | 1827.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.96 | -9.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.72 |
| league points | 51.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 90.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 65.80 |
| rest days | 4.98 | 3.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.77 | 2.20 |
| solidity v1 | 0.53 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.39 | 24.26 |
| state index | 0.36 | 0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | 1.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 162.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 2.47 |