← Premier League 2025-26 · Tue, Feb 10, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 62% | 63% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 16% | 4.33 | fair |
| Leeds win | 16% | 21% | 5.75 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea −1 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Leeds −1 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 59% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 41% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Malo Gusto · Chelsea |
| 15' | 🟨 | Josh Acheampong · Chelsea |
| 19' | 🟨 | Gabriel Gudmundsson · Leeds |
| 22' | 🟨 | Sebastiaan Bornauw · Leeds |
| 24' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Chelsea |
| 45' | 🟨 | James Justin · Leeds |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 67' | 🟨 | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Lukas Nmecha · Leeds |
| 73' | ⚽ | Noah Okafor · Leeds |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sean Longstaff · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 193.00 | 955.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.77 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1845.56 | 1680.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.28 | 10.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.81 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 66.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 43.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 3.19 | 3.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.71 | -0.03 |
| solidity v1 | -0.13 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.85 | 27.46 |
| state index | 1.19 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.36 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 271.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.39 | 1.47 |