← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 31, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 59% | 61% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.33 | value: +7% |
| West Ham win | 19% | 15% | 5.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham −1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Chelsea −1 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 52% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 48% | 2.50 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Jarrod Bowen · West Ham |
| 36' | ⚽ | Crysencio Summerville · West Ham |
| 57' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Chelsea |
| 70' | ⚽ | Marc Cucurella · Chelsea |
| 85' | 🟨 | Moisés Caicedo · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Pedro · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adama Traoré · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oliver Scarles · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟥 | Jean-Clair Todibo · West Ham |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 183.00 | 214.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.59 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1837.66 | 1583.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.43 | 2.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| league points | 37.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 2.90 | 7.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.85 | 0.01 |
| solidity v1 | -0.02 | -0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 24.58 | 26.60 |
| state index | 1.04 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 15.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.01 | 1.49 |