← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 45% | 38% | 2.10 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 35% | 3.50 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace +0.5 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Chelsea +0.5 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 42% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 58% | 2.00 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Moisés Caicedo · Chelsea |
| 34' | ⚽ | Estêvão · Chelsea |
| 50' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Chelsea |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jaydee Canvot · Crystal Palace |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
| 67' | 🟨 | Adam Wharton · Crystal Palace |
| 72' | 🟨 | Adam Wharton · Crystal Palace |
| 72' | 🟥 | Adam Wharton · Crystal Palace |
| 88' | ⚽ | Chris Richards · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Crystal Palace |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| 🟨 |
| Andrey Santos · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 724.00 | 177.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 3.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1683.31 | 1813.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.98 | -1.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 48.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| league points | 28.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 3.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | 1.06 |
| solidity v1 | -0.49 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.29 | 25.30 |
| state index | -0.40 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 11.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 1.61 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 2.06 |