← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brooks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 51% | 61% | 1.85 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.75 | fair |
| Brentford win | 23% | 17% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea −0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Brentford −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 60% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 40% | 2.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Chelsea |
| 36' | 🟨 | Kevin Schade · Brentford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Vitaly Janelt · Brentford |
| 67' | 🟨 | Marc Cucurella · Chelsea |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 83' | 🟨 | Wesley Fofana · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 169.00 | 200.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.87 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1801.89 | 1725.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.11 | 48.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | 1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.10 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | — |
| league points | 31.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 9.81 | 9.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| solidity v1 | -0.87 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 24.82 | 25.82 |
| state index | 0.22 | 1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 6.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 1.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.98 | 2.35 |