← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 27, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 54% | 55% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 27% | 4.14 | value: +13% |
| Aston Villa win | 22% | 18% | 4.31 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Chelsea −0.75 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 59% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 41% | 2.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Matty Cash · Aston Villa |
| 37' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Chelsea |
| 57' | 🟨 | Reece James · Chelsea |
| 57' | 🟨 | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 63' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 68' | 🟨 | Trevoh Chalobah · Chelsea |
| 71' | 🟨 | Liam Delap · Chelsea |
| 71' | 🟨 | Moisés Caicedo · Chelsea |
| 78' | 🟨 | Boubacar Kamara · Aston Villa |
| 84' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 148.00 | 1152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.18 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1826.65 | 1830.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.66 | 41.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.60 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| league points | 29.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.21 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 2.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.86 | 0.48 |
| solidity v1 | -0.50 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.05 | 28.11 |
| state index | 0.63 | 1.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.98 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 162.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.85 | 1.47 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.45 |