← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 40% | 37% | 2.52 | fair |
| Newcastle win | 34% | 44% | 2.87 | value: +25% |
| Draw | 27% | 20% | 3.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea +0 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Newcastle +0 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 59% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 41% | 2.27 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Nick Woltemade · Newcastle |
| 7' | 🟨 | Robert Sánchez · Chelsea |
| 20' | ⚽ | Nick Woltemade · Newcastle |
| 27' | 🟨 | Alejandro Garnacho · Chelsea |
| 45' | 🟨 | Malo Gusto · Chelsea |
| 49' | ⚽ | Reece James · Chelsea |
| 61' | 🟨 | Fabian Schär · Newcastle |
| 66' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Chelsea |
| 70' | 🟨 | Moisés Caicedo · Chelsea |
| 77' | 🟨 | Yoane Wissa · Newcastle |
| 82' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| 83' | 🟨 | João Pedro · Chelsea |
| 86' | 🟨 | Lewis Hall · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1510.00 | 141.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1930.37 | 1980.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.93 | -23.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.75 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 45.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| league points | 22.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 5.94 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.98 | 0.66 |
| solidity v1 | 0.75 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.49 | 24.92 |
| state index | 1.09 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 400.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 1.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.25 |