← Premier League 2024-25 · Tue, May 20, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Webb
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 40% | 31% | 2.41 | fair |
| Wolves win | 30% | 34% | 3.23 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.30 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Crystal Palace −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 46% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 54% | 2.02 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Agbadou · Wolves |
| 24' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Agbadou · Wolves |
| 27' | ⚽ | Edward Nketiah · Crystal Palace |
| 32' | ⚽ | Edward Nketiah · Crystal Palace |
| 50' | ⚽ | Ben Chilwell · Crystal Palace |
| 59' | 🟨 | Toti Gomes · Wolves |
| 62' | ⚽ | Jørgen Strand Larsen · Wolves |
| 69' | 🟨 | Joel Ward · Crystal Palace |
| 86' | ⚽ | Eberechi Eze · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 0 | Corners | 10 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 474.00 | 170.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1696.83 | 1597.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.99 | 20.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| league points | 49.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 9.24 | 10.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | 0.09 |
| solidity v1 | 0.31 | 0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.17 | 27.71 |
| state index | 0.56 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.42 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 192.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.03 | 1.20 |