← Premier League 2024-25 · Sun, May 18, 01:15 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 40% | 31% | 2.44 | fair |
| West Ham win | 32% | 48% | 3.05 | value: +46% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.44 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham +0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Nott'm Forest +0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 49% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 51% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 45' | 🟨 | Vladimír Coufal · West Ham |
| 52' | 🟨 | Elliot Anderson · Nott'm Forest |
| 57' | 🟨 | Guido Rodríguez · West Ham |
| 61' | ⚽ | Nikola Milenković · Nott'm Forest |
| 76' | 🟨 | Lucas Paquetá · West Ham |
| 86' | ⚽ | Jarrod Bowen · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlos Soler · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Edson Álvarez · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jean-Clair Todibo · West Ham |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.60 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Morato · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | 🟨 | Murillo · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 137.00 | 534.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1611.44 | 1670.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.80 | -25.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| league points | 40.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | -0.47 |
| solidity v1 | -0.25 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 29.67 | 26.91 |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 175.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.68 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 0.78 |