← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 37% | 28% | 2.60 | fair |
| Brentford win | 36% | 45% | 2.70 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.66 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Brentford +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 66% | 1.63 | value: +7% |
| Under | 40% | 34% | 2.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Bryan Mbeumo · Brentford |
| 18' | 🟨 | Michael Kayode · Brentford |
| 40' | 🟨 | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
| 48' | ⚽ | Bryan Mbeumo · Brentford |
| 58' | ⚽ | Yoane Wissa · Brentford |
| 61' | 🟥 | João Pedro · Brighton |
| 81' | ⚽ | Kaoru Mitoma · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nathan Collins · Brentford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mathias Jensen · Brentford |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brentford | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Gtech Community Stadium |
| Jan Paul van Hecke · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pervis Estupiñán · Brighton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Christian Nørgaard · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2392.00 | 322.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1642.47 | 1661.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.79 | -22.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 65.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.55 |
| league points | 43.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | 0.92 |
| solidity v1 | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.20 | 24.90 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 71.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.88 |