← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bond
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 74% | 72% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 15% | 6.00 | fair |
| Leicester win | 10% | 13% | 10.93 | value: +46% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester −1.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Brighton −1.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 66% | 1.54 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 34% | 2.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Bilal El Khannouss · Leicester |
| 29' | 🟨 | Conor Coady · Leicester |
| 31' | 🟨 | Mads Hermansen · Leicester |
| 31' | ⚽ (pen) | João Pedro · Brighton |
| 38' | ⚽ | Stephy Mavididi · Leicester |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pervis Estupiñán · Brighton |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | João Pedro · Brighton |
| 63' | 🟨 | Caleb Okoli · Leicester |
| 68' | 🟨 | Oliver Skipp · Leicester |
| 71' | 🟨 | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 74' | ⚽ | Caleb Okoli · Leicester |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | American Express Stadium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 315.00 |
| 132.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.29 |
| elo | 1668.64 | 1438.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.05 | -28.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | -1.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.58 |
| league points | 47.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 0.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 6.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.39 | -0.49 |
| solidity v1 | 0.30 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 25.29 | 26.93 |
| state index | 0.20 | -1.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | 0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| travel km | — | 208.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 0.43 |