← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 53% | 59% | 1.83 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.10 | fair |
| Brighton win | 23% | 18% | 4.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton −0.75 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Man City −0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 74% | 1.50 | value: +11% |
| Under | 36% | 26% | 2.74 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | João Pedro · Brighton |
| 11' | ⚽ (pen) | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 15' | 🟨 | Savinho · Man City |
| 18' | 🟨 | Kaoru Mitoma · Brighton |
| 21' | ⚽ | Pervis Estupiñán · Brighton |
| 26' | 🟨 | Carlos Baleba · Brighton |
| 39' | ⚽ | Omar Marmoush · Man City |
| 48' | ⚽ (og) | Abdukodir Khusanov · Brighton |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jérémy Doku · Man City |
| 89' | 🟨 | Mats Wieffer · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| Bart Verbruggen · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 3179.00 | 287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1856.60 | 1692.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.99 | 26.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | 0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.59 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.90 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| league points | 47.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.20 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.15 | 0.55 |
| solidity v1 | 0.43 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.51 | 24.10 |
| state index | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.32 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 325.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.85 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 2.05 |