← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bond
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 61% | 63% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.51 | fair |
| Southampton win | 17% | 16% | 5.83 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton +1 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Southampton +1 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 63% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 37% | 2.62 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Lesley Ugochukwu · Southampton |
| 23' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Brighton |
| 56' | ⚽ | Georginio Rutter · Brighton |
| 57' | 🟨 | Aaron Ramsdale · Southampton |
| 71' | ⚽ | Kaoru Mitoma · Brighton |
| 82' | ⚽ | Jack Hinshelwood · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 18 |
| 1 | On target | 12 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 83.00 | 266.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1377.78 | 1667.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.58 | 16.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.00 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.56 |
| league points | 9.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.36 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 0.38 |
| solidity v1 | -2.10 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.67 | 25.51 |
| state index | -0.88 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 91.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.23 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.19 |